I've seen a great deal of ink (pixels?) spilled over the
fact that the Jays and Donaldson are $450k apart in their arbitration filings,
and how misguided this is on the part of the Blue Jays. I'm here to tell you
that this is a non-issue for the team, maybe even a win-win.
The Jays filing indicates they're using 2013 Davis as the
benchmark, which puts the onus on Donaldson's agent to justify how he was
better. The judgement will come down to whether or not the panel buys into
counting stats, or advanced metrics. Here's how I see this going:
Jays enter the hearing stating that he's deserves to tie
the record for highest ever 2nd year arbitration increase so he
should get $11.35 million in 2016.
They'll say that Davis hit 53 dingers that year, and had 138 RBIs, and
that Donaldson only hit 41, and 123 RBIs, that his defense and leadership are
what boosts his value to equal that of 2013 Davis, but not more.
Josh's agent will argue that his 2015 season was better
than Davis' 2013 season (8.7 WAR + MVP vs. 7.0 WAR), and so he deserves more
than Davis got.
The reason I say this is a win-win for the Jays is that
their offer is not an insult, they've basically said that Donaldson is equal to
the best 2nd time arb eligible player of all time. They're using the
file and trial system to their advantage, as it has pinned JD's agent to
picking a filing that's low enough that the panel will see things his way. The
team knew they would have to pay at least $11.35 mil, leaving it up to
Donaldson's agent to enter a reasonable, justifiable counter. Ultimately, I
think JD wins the trial as I believe his filing to be justifiable in comparison
to 2013 Davis (maybe even a bit low, which is to the team's benefit). The Jays
were just using the system to keep JD's agent honest.
To those who expect JD to take this process as an insult,
or be somehow offended by the things the Jays will say to justify their position
I say this: It's just business, Donaldson knows this, his agent knows this, and
so does everyone involved. He will play his heart out next year, because that's
who he is, and he'll be up for another raise next year.
